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Expected arrival times that learn from real runs

Every stop of a running run gets an expected arrival time, worked out again every minute from where the vehicle is. Arrival and departure are recorded by themselves when the vehicle enters and leaves the stop's circle. The times between stops learn from the route's recent runs on the same weekday.
PLANSFrom Growth
Built and tested in code with a stand-in tracking server. Not yet run with real GPS units; tested with your first unit before go-live.

Why it matters

Parents wait at the stop for twenty minutes or rush out and miss the bus, and the office answers "where is the bus" all morning. Every stop of a running run gets an expected time, worked out again every minute from where the bus is, and the times between stops learn from the route's recent runs on the same weekday. Arrival and departure at each stop are recorded by themselves, so a complaint about lateness has an answer.

The problem it solves

  • Parents wait at the stop for twenty minutes, or rush out and miss the bus. The timetable says 7:15 and the bus comes when it comes.
  • The office answers the same question all morning: where is the bus.
  • Planned stop times were written once and never match the road, so every estimate built on them is wrong.
  • Nobody records when the bus actually reached each stop, so a complaint about lateness cannot be checked.

How it works

  1. A run starts. From then on, every minute, each stop not yet reached gets an expected time (ETA).
  2. With a fresh position (3 minutes old at most), the next stop's ETA comes from the distance to it at your Average Road Speed. The run's delay is that ETA against the planned time.
  3. When the vehicle enters a stop's circle (100 metres to start with), the tracking server reports it and the arrival time is recorded. When it leaves, the departure is recorded. If that report is missed, being inside the circle at the next minute counts as arriving.
  4. Later stops follow at the times the route really took between those two stops. That is the middle value of its last 10 runs on the same weekday, once there are at least 3. Until then the planned gaps are used.
  5. Without a fresh position, the next stop is the planned time plus the delay so far, or the learned time from the last stop reached.
  6. Riders and parents are told when the vehicle is a set number of minutes from their stop (10 to start with). They are told too if the run is more than your delay limit late (15 minutes to start with).

Everything it does

Expected time (ETA)

  • Worked out every minute for every running run
  • From the live position when it is 3 minutes old or fresher: the straight-line distance to the next stop times 1.3 for the road. It uses the Entity's Average Road Speed (25 km/h to start with)
  • Otherwise: planned time plus the current delay, or the learned time from the last stop reached
  • Shown on the run's Stops tab, on the live map, on the My transport page and in the apps

Arrival and departure at a stop

  • Recorded by itself when the vehicle enters the stop's circle (Radius (m), 100 to start with) while the vehicle's run is running
  • Departure recorded when it leaves the circle
  • The run's delay is updated at each arrival
  • The driver can also mark a stop reached in the SmartMy Transit Crew app
  • Stops without a latitude and longitude cannot be reached by GPS

Times that learn

  • For each pair of stops, the middle value of the real times over the route's last 10 finished runs on the same weekday
  • Used once at least 3 such runs exist; before that, the planned gap between the stops
  • Monday's times are learned from Mondays, so a day with heavier traffic gets its own times
  • Nothing to switch on: it starts as runs are finished

What it does not do

  • It does not use live traffic or a road map for the ETA
  • It does not change the route's planned times; route planning uses the learned times when you re-plan (Scale)

Who uses it

Parent or riderSees the expected time at their stop in the SmartMy Transit Rider app or on the My transport page, and gets the minutes-away message.
Transport officeSees the ETA of every stop on the live map and on each run, and which runs are late.
DriverSees the expected time of each stop in the Crew app and can mark a stop reached.
Transport administratorSets the average road speed, the minutes-away and the delay limit, and each stop's radius.

Where you use it

  • Web: the run's Stops tab (planned, ETA, arrived, departed) and the live map
  • Web for riders and parents: the My transport page shows planned, ETA and reached times, refreshed every minute while the run is on
  • The SmartMy Transit Rider app: Expected at, with the bus on the map (built and in testing, not in the app stores yet)
  • The SmartMy Transit Crew app: planned and expected time per stop (built and in testing, not in the app stores yet)

What you control

Settings

  • Average Road Speed (km/h): 25 to start with
  • Tell Riders When Minutes Away: 10 to start with; 0 sends no minutes-away message
  • Delay Alert After (minutes): 15 to start with
  • Radius (m) per stop: 100 to start with

Notifications

  • Vehicle Near the Stop: to the people told about each rider expected at that stop, once per stop and run, not on drop runs. In the app and by email; a person can switch it off
  • Vehicle at the Stop: to the same people when the vehicle reaches the stop, not on drop runs. In the app and by email; a person can switch it off
  • Run Delayed: to the people told about every rider on the run, once per run, when the delay passes the limit. In the app and by email; cannot be switched off
  • None of these waits for quiet hours. SMS and WhatsApp to parents are not offered yet; phone notifications come with the apps' release

Works with

SmartMy CampusThe Transport card on the parent portal leads to the child's ride with the expected time.

Questions

How accurate is the expected time?

It improves as the route is driven. The first runs use your planned times and the live distance at your average road speed. After three runs on the same weekday, the real times between stops take over. It does not use live traffic, so a sudden jam shows up only as the bus slows.

Does the bus need a GPS unit?

For the live ETA and the automatic arrival, yes, or the driver's phone with the Crew app as the tracker. Without either, stops show their planned times and the driver marks stops reached in the Crew app.

Why was a stop not marked reached?

The stop may have no latitude and longitude, or its radius may be too small for where the bus halts. Or the vehicle's run was not started. Check the stop's position and radius.

Can parents be told five minutes before instead of ten?

Yes. Set Tell Riders When Minutes Away on the Entity's Transport tab. It applies to every stop of the Entity.

Does it change our timetable?

No. Planned times stay as you set them. If you re-plan routes (Scale), route planning can use the times learned from real runs.

Related features

LIVE MAP AND PLAYBACKLive map of all vehiclesThe transport office sees every tracked vehicle on one map: moving, idle, stopped or offline, and its speed. It also sees the run it is on with its driver and how late it is. The stops of the running runs show their expected time and turn green once reached.MESSAGES TO RIDERS AND PARENTSParents told when the bus starts, nears the stop and the child boardsRiders and parents hear when the run starts, when the bus is a few minutes away and when it reaches the stop. Then they hear when the rider boards, is dropped or misses the bus. Delays, a change of vehicle or driver and a cancelled run are told too, the moment they happen.PHONE APPSThe Rider app for riders and parentsSmartMy Transit Rider shows riders and parents today's rides, the stop time, the rider's state and past rides. They can also say "not riding". From Growth the bus moves on a map with the expected time at your stop.WEB PAGES FOR RIDERS AND PARENTSThe My transport web pageA web page for riders and parents, with no app to install. It shows today's rides with the planned and expected time at the stop and the rider's state. "Tell the school" says the rider is not riding. To watch the bus move, parents use the Rider app.STOPS, ROUTES, RIDERSStops and routes with planned timesPut every stop on the map with a radius. Build pickup, drop and shuttle routes with the stops in order and a planned time at each. Each route has its usual vehicle, driver, helper, working days and seats.ROUTE PLANNINGRoute planning on the fewest vehiclesPut one route's stops in the best order, or re-plan all the pickup or drop routes of a leg. The plan uses the fewest vehicles, within their seats and a longest ride time. You see the suggestion first and change nothing until you press Apply.

See your own routes on the map.

Send us your stops and routes and we will show you a demo with them.