Forecasts from sales history
Make a forecast per item, plant and month from your past deliveries to customers, by average or by trend, or type it by hand. Forecasts feed the master schedule and, above the orders already in, the MRP run.
PLANSScale only
The problem it solves
- You make to order, so long-lead materials are bought only after the order arrives and the delivery slips.
- Next month's numbers are one person's feel, written nowhere the planner can use.
- When the season turns, nobody has looked at whether sales are rising or falling.
How it works
- Your planner opens Manufacturing > Planning > Make Forecasts and picks the plant and the items (or none for every item sold from the plant). Then the months of history and the months ahead.
- Pick Average or Trend and press Make. The forecast for each item and month is worked out from the deliveries to customers in the months chosen.
- Forecasts open as a pivot and a list under Planning > Forecasts. Change a figure, or add one By Hand; a forecast made by hand is never overwritten by the next run.
- Build the master schedule from the forecasts. With the MRP run, the part of a week's forecast above the customer orders already in also counts as demand.
Everything it does
Making forecasts
- From deliveries to customers that left the plant, month by month, up to the start of this month
- Months of History: 12 to start with; Months Ahead: 3 to start with; at least one of each
- Average: the mean of the months of history
- Trend: a straight line through the months, carried forward; never below zero
- Items: empty means every item delivered from the plant in those months
- Refused if there were no deliveries to customers in the months chosen
The forecast
- One per item, plant and month (the first day of the month); a second is refused
- Expected to Sell, and how it was made: By Hand, Average or Trend
- Forecasts made By Hand are kept when forecasts are made again; Average and Trend ones are replaced
- Pivot and list, editable; filter From This Month; group by item or month
- Every change is kept in the forecast's history
Where forecasts are used
- The master schedule spreads each month's forecast over its days and weeks
- The MRP run takes the forecast above the customer orders of each week not yet firm, as demand
Who uses it
PlannerMakes forecasts, corrects them by hand and builds the master schedule.
Production ManagerLooks at the forecast by item and month before agreeing the plan.
SupervisorCan read forecasts.
Where you use it
- Web: Manufacturing > Planning > Make Forecasts and Forecasts (planners and above)
- Not in the SmartMy Manufacturing app (built and in testing, not in the app stores yet): this screen is on the web
- Not from sales orders or CRM pipeline: the history is deliveries to customers
What you control
Settings
- Per run: plant (the Entity's first plant to start with), items, Months of History 12, Months Ahead 3, method Average to start with
Questions
Where does the history come from?
From stock delivered from the plant to customers, month by month. Sales orders not yet delivered are not history; they count as customer orders in the master schedule.Will making forecasts again wipe my changes?
A forecast added By Hand is never overwritten. A forecast made by Average or Trend is replaced on the next run, even if you changed its figure. So add your own figures By Hand.Can it forecast seasons?
No. It works out an average or a straight-line trend. For a season, type the months By Hand.Do forecasts drive purchasing?
Through the MRP run: the part of a week's forecast above the customer orders counts as demand, so materials are proposed for it.Which plan has forecasts?
Scale. The MRP run comes with Growth and is part of Scale.Related features
LINES AND SCHEDULINGMaster schedule and rough-cut capacityBuild a week-by-week plan of what to make for each item and plant from your forecasts, customer orders and stock. Change the plan where you know better, firm the sure weeks into production orders, and check the load on each machine before you commit.PLANNING, QUALITY AND COSTMRP run and the planner's workbenchOne run works out what to make and what to buy for a plant, level by level through your bills of materials. It works from customer orders, open production orders, stock and safety stock. The planner checks each proposal on one workbench and orders it.PRODUCTION AND JOB WORKSales, purchase and CRM: from lead to goods receivedFollow enquiries through your pipeline, send quotations, take sales orders and invoice them, raise purchase orders and receive the goods into your plant. Every invoice and bill names its plant.LINES AND SCHEDULINGScheduling board: jobs across machines and daysEvery machine is a row and every day a column, with each job as a bar. Drag a job to move it in time or to an allowed machine. See each day's load against the machine's hours, and replan a machine in one click.PLANNING, QUALITY AND COSTAlternate components and substitutesList the items that can stand in for a component of a bill of materials, with how many replace one and in what order. When a production order is short, one button uses the alternates in stock. The MRP run tells the planner when an alternate could save a purchase.
See your shop floor on it.
Tell us what you make, how many machines and people you run, and how production is recorded today. We will set up a line with you and run a job on the terminal.